The most important election of their lifetimes

Early next spring, it’ll be time to vote all over again.

On the one hand, you have the young Democratic candidate of change, projecting hope and optimism, and coming from a minority group that has never before achieved such high office.

On the other, an aging, angry Republican warmonger with a foul-mouth who defends years of failed policy and lost American lives…yet manages to remain strangely sympathetic as a tragic figure.

Yes, Academy voters choosing Best Actor are — I’m fairly certain (though my track record on these predictions is often bad) — going to choose between Sean Penn’s Harvey Milk, and Frank Langella’s Richard M. Nixon.

In part, the material is helpful. MILK is a movie about fighting to abolish a controversial California ballot proposition with the potential to severely harm the gay rights movement. FROST/NIXON is about getting an unpopular president to come clean about his role in criminal coverups that include wiretapping and misleading the public about war. Both feel just as resonate on today’s issues as they are on the actual historical topics being covered.

And both also happen to have fantastic lead performances. In real life, the actors don’t look a whole lot like the people they’re playing. But in the roles, you believe it. By the end of each movie, they DO look like the real people to any viewer who’s become engrossed in the story.

So can an Academy full of Hollywood liberals vote for the Republican in this race? I’d say the odds are in his favor. Here’s why:

-Last year, there was a lot of support for Frank Langella by critics for his lead role in the movie STARTING OUT IN THE EVENING. He might have had a chance if anyone but critics had actually seen the film. This is his second chance.

-Villains are just more fun than heroes.

-Ron Howard and Brian Grazier know how to schmooze.

-MILK is a gay movie. Not, as they say, that there’s anything wrong with that, but if the Academy couldn’t handle BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN, they may have trouble with a more explicit movie. I have found that even the most PC, liberal people may be totally pro-equal rights for gays in public, but still, given their druthers, will refuse to watch even the most discreet gay sex scene; many of my friends absolutely would not go to BROKEBACK despite my enthusiasm for it (and the straight-bait of Anne Hathaway’s and Michelle Williams’ tits). Me? I’ve had to review movies with hardcore male-on-male action before. I’m over it.

-Nixon has been portrayed before, but never this well, so there’s a basis for comparison.

-Sean Penn already has an Oscar.

The dark horse in the Best Actor race is Clint Eastwood for Gran Torino. I haven’t seen it, but Clint has never won Best Actor, and this is allegedly his last lead role. I would give Clint the Oscar for pretty much anything in which he does his Clint persona…and I also would like to see HUNGER’s Michael Fessenden get a nomination…but if it ain’t Clint, it’ll be Langella.

We’ll see if I’m right in a coupla months.